2026 NFL Season - Week 1

The NFL season is always a nightmare early on for making wagers.  Not that it’s an easy win at any time of the year.  But early on, before teams have had a chance in a live game that counts to demonstrate what they’re going to bring to the field, it’s just this side of impossible to be certain of what you’re looking at. 

Do you know how disruptive Aaron Donald will be?  Is he going to be playing at an extreme high level for extended stretches of the first game? 

How about Patrick Mahomes?  Any other players returning from injury ready to be without-a-doubt impacts from the first snaps? 

Odds from USA Today.  Here are the games… 

New England at Seattle (-3.5) 

Even before all the scuttlebutt about whether or not Christian Gonzalez will be playing as a result of ongoing contract trouble, this was going to be a tough place to start for the Patriots.  I expect a closer, better, and much more competitive game from these two teams than we witnessed in the Super Bowl.  And New England might be able to sneak out a victory.  But I think you need to go with Seattle at home here in what should be a game decided by four to six points. 

Bob: Seattle 

Emmie: Seattle 

Canasta: Seattle 

San Francisco at Los Angeles (Rams) (-3.5) 

Ouch.  See what I mean about early season troubles?  In three or four games, you might have zero questions about Donald, Nick Bosa or George Kittle.  But in this contest, played in Australia, we’ve got little to go on.  So I’m going to do something a bit funny. 

I’m picking the 49ers – specifically by getting a great game from Christian McCaffrey – to win this contest. 

There’s been a lot going on for the Rams this offseason.  It hasn’t all been brilliant additions and fabulous returns on defense.  There have been stories about why they drafted a quarterback in round one only to have him sitting as a project.  Wide receiver Puka Nacua remains swirling in a mix of injury updates and off-field issues.  Could be nothing.  But flying more than eight thousand miles for game one won’t be a solution to any issues. 

Bob: San Francisco 

Emmie: San Francisco 

Canasta: Los Angeles 

Tampa Bay at Cincinnati (-4) 

I’m a Tampa fan.  And I have to take the blinders off here.  While I like what Baker Mayfield has done, I don’t believe he's a top-10 quarterback.  Middle grouping, good reputation as a leader, but zero way I’m looking at him over a combination of Joe Burrow throwing to Ja’Marr Chase. 

Some injury watchers have Chase on their radar.  I think the Bengals go out to make a statement about whether or not we can view them seriously this season. 

Bob: Cincinnati 

Emmie: Cincinnati 

Canasta: Tampa Bay 

Baltimore (-3.5) at Indianapolis 

The Ravens enter this season with a lot to prove.  They also have a lot of new stuff in place, starting with the head coach.  I still think they’ll easily put this in the win column. 

Bob: Baltimore 

Emmie: Indianapolis 

Canasta: Indianapolis 

Buffalo (-1.5) at Houston 

This could be the most important game of the week.  Don’t get me wrong, Rams-49ers is huge, and a lot of teams could collapse with a loss this week.  But the Bills are treating this season as a Super Bowl or nothing adventure.  And Houston has been delivering consistently solid play under DeMeco Ryans for three seasons so far. 

You almost have to take the Bills on the road here.  But if you want to circle two big “if this happens” games, consider: New England defeats Seattle, and Houston defeats Buffalo.  The Patriots and Bills will have their fans and the media roaring if that pair cashes in. 

Bob: Buffalo 

Emmie: Houston 

Canasta: Houston 

New Orleans at Detroit (-7) 

Detroit needs a big, dominant win to start this season. 

They’ll get it. 

Bob: Detroit 

Emmie: Detroit 

Canasta: Detroit 

Cleveland at Jacksonville (-8) 

I hate the teams.  Neither has any boasting they can offer about consistency or what to expect. 

I hate the spread.  There’s only one higher this week, but even more reason to take the favorites in that one.  (More on the Chargers soon.) 

Still, take the Jaguars.  With Myles Garret in Australia on a different roster this week, the Browns are not a team to be feared in any way right now. 

Bob: Jacksonville 

Emmie: Jacksonville 

Canasta: Jacksonville 

New York (Jets) at Tennessee (-1.5) 

Yuck. 

Bob: Tennessee 

Emmie: New York 

Canasta: New York 

Atlanta at Pittsburgh (-3.5) 

Take a deep breath.  On one side is a team that could be decent, has respectable parts, but still really no quarterback.  On the other, a club that’s going to be around even for a seasonal record and out of the playoffs.  Neither team has much in the way to justify anything good or bad yet. 

Bob: Pittsburgh 

Emmie: Atlanta 

Canasta: Atlanta 

Chicago (-2.5) at Carolina 

Everyone who thought the Panthers would be a team that you had to respect as feisty, with a chance of delivering some upsets, raise your hands.  And amazingly, that opening sentence isn’t a crazy thing to say about Carolina this year.  It was in recent seasons, but not right now. 

Still, I like how the Bears looked last season.  I think they’re building something solid.  Not quite dominant or impressive just yet.  But stable and fun.  I trust them to take this game seriously and do what good teams do.  Win.  May not be pretty or as expected.  Worry about the issues later, win first. 

Bob: Chicago 

Emmie: Chicago 

Canasta: Carolina 

Green Bay at Minnesota (-1.5) 

Minnesota being favored doesn’t please me.  At all.  If they were the underdogs, I’d tell you about some of the changes they’d made and players on their roster, and we’d have a lot of fun.  Then I’d mention how Green Bay is expecting big things and wants to be respected as more than a qualifying playoff team that goes home after the first round. 

Then, after all was balanced and considered, I’d think about how the Vikings have been discounted by me in recent years before delivering a statement opening-game win followed by an impressive stretch out of the gate. Since they never act as expected, pick the Vikings and watch the season move along. Tell me exactly what’s going on with these teams around mid-October. 

Bob: Minnesota 

Emmie: Green Bay 

Canasta: Green Bay 

Washington at Philadelphia (-5) 

Coin flip.  To me, a coin flip.  (Mainly because I want to see Washington play well and disrupt opinions about the division.) 

I’m going to take the Commanders here, but pretty much only because I need to make a pick.  Honestly, the most impressive thing I saw all offseason from either organization was how well Washington completely avoided Brandon Aiyuk. 

Bob: Washington 

Emmie: Philadelphia 

Canasta: Philadelphia 

Arizona at Los Angeles (Chargers) (-10) 

I can’t.  I just can’t. 

Jim Harbaugh has built his two 11-6 seasons with the Chargers on making sure games like this are strongly carved into the win column. 

Arizona doesn’t have any quarterback on the roster that even truly qualifies as a third-string backup to the stopgap until a savior-to-be is drafted.  Yes, I’m being dramatic.  But, well, just look and tell me different without laughing. 

Bob: Los Angeles 

Emmie: Los Angeles 

Canasta: Los Angeles 

Miami at Las Vegas (-3.5) 

(Sigh.) 

Raiders at home.  Competent but boring quarterback.  A few things to raise eyebrows at. 

Dolphins on the road.  Questions at virtually every position on the roster. 

Bob: Las Vegas 

Emmie: Las Vegas 

Canasta: Las Vegas 

Dallas (-3) at New York (Giants) 

Nothing to see here.  Dallas is going to destroy New York with one of those legendary high-stat performances that means something between diddley and squat by January. 

Bob: Dallas 

Emmie: New York 

Canasta: Dallas 

Denver at Kansas City (-2.5) 

Umm.  Uh oh. 

Is the Denver defense going to be the beast that drives this team again?  Is Bo Nix really a reliable playoff-caliber quarterback?  What can we expect from Mahomes?  Are the Chiefs way past their destructive prime and in need of an overhaul? 

When in doubt, take the defense. 

Bob: Denver 

Emmie: Denver 

Canasta: Denver